The case for the Brewers...

Brewers post-All Star break record: 1-0

Cubs post-All Star break record: 0-1

Convincing argument, right?

The Bowler and I can agree that we haven’t mutually anticipated the dog days this much since we’ve known each other. Though the 2007 campaign remained in doubt until the last series of the season, as early as Independence Day, it was all too apparent that we were supporting teams headed in opposite directions.

This year has far different feel to it. After an uncharacteristically slow start, the Crew are 12 games over .500 since losing 6 straight games to begin May. Over the same period of time, the Cubbies have played even better at 14 games over .500. With 76 games remaining, both teams have demonstrated consistency and begin the home stretch playing well enough to be considered pennant frontrunners in the National League. The recent trades for Sabathia and Harden only served to raise the intensity and drama of the chase. The watches and car keys are in the pot and both teams believe they possess the better hand.


Of course, the Cubs currently have the advantage, not only in their 4-game lead in the standings, but in the way that they have hit and pitched thus far. The Brewers’ sometimes baffling inability to get on base and their misadventures in the field and bullpen continue to try my patience and are a little too reminiscent of last year’s historical collapse. Given the present state of affairs, it is unlikely that the Brewers will be able to catch the Cubs before the end of the regular season.

As of today, playoff projections indicate that the probability is that the Cubs will win the NL Central outright and that the Brewers have the best likelihood of any team in the National League to secure the Wild Card. Much will be settled in the 10 remaining games that the Brewers and Cubs are scheduled to play, 7 of which will take place in Milwaukee (I will try to ignore the fact that traditionally Cubs fans have made Miller seem like Wrigley), where Milwaukee has the 2nd-best homefield advantage (behind the Cubs). The Brewers and the Cubs will also play in the last series of the regular season which, if the issue is fought out on this line all summer, will result in a release of the contents of my bladder whether or not the Brewers secure a playoff berth.

Presuming the numbers are correct (which presumption may turn out to be foolhardy given the snowballing avalanche that is the New York fucking Mets) and also the import of the remaining games between the two teams, the pennant will be decided on the field between the two teams in the NLCS. This offers some encouragement to the Brewers, who in 6 games at Wrigley Field this year (their only so far against the Cubs), have taken 4. However, those will be ancient history by the time October rolls around. These are the hosses and guns that will decide the fray:

Starting rotations:

Sheets/Sabathia/Parra/Suppan/McClung-Bush

Zambrano/Harden/Lilly/Dempster/Marquis


On the track:

Braun/Cameron/Hart

Soriano/Edmonds/Fukudome


Around the horn:

Hall-Branyan/Hardy/Weeks/Fielder/Kendall

Ramirez/Theriot/DeRosa/Lee/Soto


Out of the ‘pen:

Torres/Riske/Shouse

Wood/Marmol/Howry


On the pine:

Kapler/Counsell/Dillon

Cedeno/Fontenot/Johnson


Looking at that, we’re in for a potentially epic duel down the stretch.

The Brewers have the advantage because they are more of a known quantity and, in my view, will better sustain their performance.

For the Cubs, uncertainty abounds. Can Alfonso Soriano return from the DL at the end of July and resume playing at a high level? Can Ryan Dempster, Jim Edmonds, Ryan Theriot, and Mark DeRosa continue to outperform projections? Can Jim Edmonds and Rich Harden stay healthy? The second half for the Cubs points to at least a slight regression to the mean.

Ryan Dempster is 31 and has already pitched 30 innings more than he did in his best season in 2005. DeRosa, 33, is having his best season as a professional baseball player. Jim Edmonds has been steadily declining since the 2006 season and he hasn’t had more than 400 at-bats since 2005. In Ryan Theriot’s only full season, he struck out more than he walked and his numbers of .266/.326/.346 make my penis erect. Tony Womack is his most similar comparison by age. And everyone knows Rich Harden hasn’t pitched more than 100 innings since 2005. He’s at 82 innings right now.

For the Brewers, Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron, Corey Hart, and Russell Branyan all OPS+ at 115 or higher. They are far younger than the Cubs, particularly at amongst the starters, and less likely to fade down the stretch. And, if they survive until mid-October, the Cubs would do well to remember that Yovani Gallardo will be ready to return. Sheets, Sabathia, Gallardo, and Parra would arguably be the scariest 4-man rotation in the Major Leagues.

The final nail in the Cubbies’ collective coffin: Come October, the Cubs will have gone 100 years without winning a World Series. If they win the pennant, that would potentially ruin a perfectly good cocaine party hosted by Gary Sinise and Journey. We’ll be at the Drake Hotel on East Walton Place. I’ll be the one wearing the urine-stained boxers and the Paul Molitor jersey.