The case for the Brewers...

Brewers post-All Star break record: 1-0

Cubs post-All Star break record: 0-1

Convincing argument, right?

The Bowler and I can agree that we haven’t mutually anticipated the dog days this much since we’ve known each other. Though the 2007 campaign remained in doubt until the last series of the season, as early as Independence Day, it was all too apparent that we were supporting teams headed in opposite directions.

This year has far different feel to it. After an uncharacteristically slow start, the Crew are 12 games over .500 since losing 6 straight games to begin May. Over the same period of time, the Cubbies have played even better at 14 games over .500. With 76 games remaining, both teams have demonstrated consistency and begin the home stretch playing well enough to be considered pennant frontrunners in the National League. The recent trades for Sabathia and Harden only served to raise the intensity and drama of the chase. The watches and car keys are in the pot and both teams believe they possess the better hand.


Of course, the Cubs currently have the advantage, not only in their 4-game lead in the standings, but in the way that they have hit and pitched thus far. The Brewers’ sometimes baffling inability to get on base and their misadventures in the field and bullpen continue to try my patience and are a little too reminiscent of last year’s historical collapse. Given the present state of affairs, it is unlikely that the Brewers will be able to catch the Cubs before the end of the regular season.

As of today, playoff projections indicate that the probability is that the Cubs will win the NL Central outright and that the Brewers have the best likelihood of any team in the National League to secure the Wild Card. Much will be settled in the 10 remaining games that the Brewers and Cubs are scheduled to play, 7 of which will take place in Milwaukee (I will try to ignore the fact that traditionally Cubs fans have made Miller seem like Wrigley), where Milwaukee has the 2nd-best homefield advantage (behind the Cubs). The Brewers and the Cubs will also play in the last series of the regular season which, if the issue is fought out on this line all summer, will result in a release of the contents of my bladder whether or not the Brewers secure a playoff berth.

Presuming the numbers are correct (which presumption may turn out to be foolhardy given the snowballing avalanche that is the New York fucking Mets) and also the import of the remaining games between the two teams, the pennant will be decided on the field between the two teams in the NLCS. This offers some encouragement to the Brewers, who in 6 games at Wrigley Field this year (their only so far against the Cubs), have taken 4. However, those will be ancient history by the time October rolls around. These are the hosses and guns that will decide the fray:

Starting rotations:

Sheets/Sabathia/Parra/Suppan/McClung-Bush

Zambrano/Harden/Lilly/Dempster/Marquis


On the track:

Braun/Cameron/Hart

Soriano/Edmonds/Fukudome


Around the horn:

Hall-Branyan/Hardy/Weeks/Fielder/Kendall

Ramirez/Theriot/DeRosa/Lee/Soto


Out of the ‘pen:

Torres/Riske/Shouse

Wood/Marmol/Howry


On the pine:

Kapler/Counsell/Dillon

Cedeno/Fontenot/Johnson


Looking at that, we’re in for a potentially epic duel down the stretch.

The Brewers have the advantage because they are more of a known quantity and, in my view, will better sustain their performance.

For the Cubs, uncertainty abounds. Can Alfonso Soriano return from the DL at the end of July and resume playing at a high level? Can Ryan Dempster, Jim Edmonds, Ryan Theriot, and Mark DeRosa continue to outperform projections? Can Jim Edmonds and Rich Harden stay healthy? The second half for the Cubs points to at least a slight regression to the mean.

Ryan Dempster is 31 and has already pitched 30 innings more than he did in his best season in 2005. DeRosa, 33, is having his best season as a professional baseball player. Jim Edmonds has been steadily declining since the 2006 season and he hasn’t had more than 400 at-bats since 2005. In Ryan Theriot’s only full season, he struck out more than he walked and his numbers of .266/.326/.346 make my penis erect. Tony Womack is his most similar comparison by age. And everyone knows Rich Harden hasn’t pitched more than 100 innings since 2005. He’s at 82 innings right now.

For the Brewers, Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron, Corey Hart, and Russell Branyan all OPS+ at 115 or higher. They are far younger than the Cubs, particularly at amongst the starters, and less likely to fade down the stretch. And, if they survive until mid-October, the Cubs would do well to remember that Yovani Gallardo will be ready to return. Sheets, Sabathia, Gallardo, and Parra would arguably be the scariest 4-man rotation in the Major Leagues.

The final nail in the Cubbies’ collective coffin: Come October, the Cubs will have gone 100 years without winning a World Series. If they win the pennant, that would potentially ruin a perfectly good cocaine party hosted by Gary Sinise and Journey. We’ll be at the Drake Hotel on East Walton Place. I’ll be the one wearing the urine-stained boxers and the Paul Molitor jersey.

Brewers as NL Champs? That's just like, your opinion, man.

The Cubs (not the Brewers) will represent the National League in the Fall Classic this year. Mark it, Dude.


People assume that Cubs fans are highly superstitious and thus highly guarded in their proclamations of superiority (albeit seasonal). Many of the Wrigley faithful groaned as Bernie Mac sung “root, root, root for the cha-amps” during the 7th inning stretch at Game 6 of the 2003 NLCS with the Cubs holding a 3-1 lead. Obviously that was a social gaffe because putting the cart in front of the horse, especially in such a highly charged situation lacks tact and understanding. However, had the whole Bartman/Prior/Gonzalez meltdown never occurred, no one would even remember that momentary slip of common sense. The way things actually happened, the exquisitely painful series of events that unfolded triggers many drunken blue-capped ladies and gentleman to work themselves into a foamy lather regarding one diabolical curse. The motives of the hands are unknown to us, but the devices He uses are iconic: a billy goat in ’45, a black cat in ’69, Leon Durham’s wickets in ’84, a grabby baseball nerd in ’03. Last month Dirty and I were sitting against the left field wall just a caps toss away from the Bartman seat (which has a sticker on it so people know which one to pose in for pregame pictures) and as the innings went on and the beers piled up, I had to consciously remind myself to dive out of the way if a pop fly was hit in my direction with the Cubs in the field. While I understand this isn’t an advanced concept, my head was a little fuzzy with Old Style and split second decisions in that state usually amount to some awkward lunge at the ball on my part. But now, I must be forever aware of Moises Alou patrolling the outfield lest I somehow in manage to interfere and end up on Sportscenter as “a typical idiot Cubs fan”. Those are the everyday realities of the Northsider and probably why most outsiders looking in share a mixture of sympathy and disgust. Sympathy at the perennial losing, disgust at how trivial this “badge of worry” attitude all seems. Well, for this post, I’m shelving all that cautious crap and making a brief argument for the leaders in the clubhouse at the turn, the 2008 Chicago Cubs for the NL pennant.



Possible rotation for an NLDS - Game 1: Zambrano, Game 2: Harden, Game 3: Dempster, Game 4: Zambrano, Game 5: Harden. Just a week ago I wrote how the C.C. Sabathia trade was an intimidating pick-up, luckily that feeling only lasted 24 hours. If we stay healthy at the top of our rotation, nobody can beat our starters – Not the Brewers. Not the Diamondbacks. Nobody.



Two ROY candidates and All-Stars starters in Kosuke Fukudome and Geovany Soto. Not since Jerome Walton and Dwight Smith going one-and-two in the Rookie of the Year balloting in 1989 has Chicago been more juiced up about a pair of newcomers.

The Cubs have a MLB leading run differential of +108 while the Cardinals (+18) and Brewers (+12) are distant also-rans in the category. Since the Cubs are only 5.5 and 6 games up respectively, one could intuit that multiple blowouts and difficulty with one run games are the cause. However, the Cubs are a touch above .500 (15-14) in one run contests. The Cardinals (19-16) and Brewers (19-10) have faired a little better, but I feel that these statistics rest in favor of the Cubbies. Whenever you are x10 better than other teams at something as elemental to the outcome of games as runs scored/runs conceded then the dam will eventually break.

Reason #341 why the Brewers won’t win the NL pennant in 2008: Eric “The 10 million dollar man” Gagne in his fourth appearance since coming off the DL on July 12th:

1.0 IP, 27 pitches, 4 hits, 4 runs, 4 ER, 2 HR, 1 K



Not since Rick Mirer has there been the potential for such a handsomely paid benchwarmer.

The Brewers have crumbled before and they have lasted thus far grit, moxie, homeruns and Ben Sheets. I know, I know, Manny Parra is a nice little story. Ditto Corey Hart in all his beer soaked glory. But in the end, it’s Fielder and Braun and little else. Wrigley Field boasts six batters with over 300 ABs and at least .370 OBP (Theriot .396, Ramirez .387, Fukudome .384, DeRosa .378, Lee .371, Soto .370). The Brewers? Zero. The closest is J.J. Hardy with 303 ABs and a .356 OBP.

The Brewers are a nice story, but the team to beat is that way for a reason. And this year, in light of this new shit, well, I rest my case.

"Certain things have come to light. And, you know, has it ever occurred to you, that, instead of, uh, you know, running around, uh, uh, blaming me, you know, given the nature of all this new shit, you know, I-I-I-I... this could be a-a-a-a lot more, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, uh, complex, I mean, it's not just, it might not be just such a simple... uh, you know?"

Baseball Hats Everywhere

Before I write anything, I want to convey my most sincere and heartfelt condolences towards Ben and his 2007 Milwaukee Brewers. I remember a distinct moment this past April that made me wary of this team and justifiably so. I was listening to backloaded ESPN baseball podcasts on my I-Pod enroute to Spring Training in Mesa. It was early morning on the Blue Line heading up to O'Hare for a 7am flight and (the usually prophetic) Peter Gammon’s was running down his MLB standings predictions. The sun was just rising over the lake and I had made up my mind that if the Cubs were going to win, it would have to be this year. Gammons reached the NL Central and without any question or doubt, he fingered the Brewers to finish the year in first. He was met with incredulity and cynicism by the rest of the panel, but he categorically rebuffed them and restated his original assertion adding, "It's all there to make a run. Pitching, young power hitting, speed..."

Ever since that moment, I've been worried about them although I would never actually admit that to Ben (and for the record, this doesn't qualify as an omission of said worry for any organization named the Brewers, seeing as minor aspects of these posts are fictionalized to add density and richness to the characters being portrayed, thank you very much). There is no reason why a team should spend over 3/4 of the season in first place only to lose it in the last month, on the last weekend. It's unfair to the fans and their psyches. I've been around Brewers fans for years and the only thing that tied them together (besides hating the Cubs and Robin Yount jerseys) was that they weren't overly optimistic. Brewers fans were always pragmatists while the Cubs fans tended to be more fatalistic.

This year though? The Brewers fans kicked down the door in the first two months of the season. They provided a loud (rowdy even) presence at Wrigley and left early with wins (an inordinate amount of wins even). The growing feeling was that of all the Milwaukee surges of recent years, this looked the least flukey. To make a long story short, I feel for the kid. You have to. Such good fans don't deserve to witness something that excruciating over a 4 month span. It's bad ju-ju no matter how you cut it. Go Packers.

Ok, now I'm gunna zig back this-ah way...


September 28, 2003 - The Chicago Cubs clinch the NL Central. It happens during the second quarter of a Virginia football game during my 4th year. My Dad and I meet at halftime and do that awkward, giddy embrace reserved for the genuinely ecstatic or mental deranged. I leave the game in the third quarter to read internet reactions and muse over potential foes. For the next three weeks, my Cubs hat only leaves my head for showers and sleep. Mark Prior is arguably the best pitcher still playing. I'm running on pure emotion, malt liquor and the intoxication that is October baseball. Classes are an interesting diversion from my true purpose... hanging on every pitch.

:::In between, some stuff happens:::

September 28, 2007- The Chicago Cubs clinch the NL Central a little after 10PM CST. Here's how I remember it...

There were three fanbases at Cincy's Great American Ballpark: Cubs, Reds and Brewers fans.... I'm switching between Cubs/Reds and Brewers/Padres.... Bronson Arroyo's leg kick is why I can't take him seriously as a solid #2 starting pitcher.... This time of year really lets you appreciate how delicate the dance is between the "standings flags" above the Wrigley scoreboard....


I love the old school uni's that the Brewers dusted off for this "Throwback Night" in Milwaukee. A very solid move in my opinion. However, I wasn't too sure what to make of the towel waving in the stands (this goes for you too Philly). I'm down with towel waving at NBA playoff games and college football games for some reason, but not at MLB pennant implicating regular season games. I can't explain it really. I think the Homer Hankies for the Minnesota Twins playoff run in 1991 were fine because they "looked cool". Because they were hankies being waved, it was more like pulsing cloth rather than 40,000 people mindlessly twirling bar rags. But really, I was just a ten year old boy then, so what do I know. Moving on.

This is a time of year when strange things happen. I love it because scoreboard watching is immensely enjoyable, magic numbers are constantly in your mind and things can swing wildly in a matter of days (see The Mets).... Why are people still running on Alfonso Soriano's arm? He just notched his 20th outfield assist with ease and I can't remember where I put my beer. I love baseball.... The concept of A-Rod on the Northside next year is distracting. I don't want to be thinking about such things right now. It's like the 20 minutes that Kobe was talking about coming to Chicago this summer. I'm going to go blind thinking about stuff like that.... The Cubbies are up 4-0 during the 7th inning stretch. It looks to be 50/50 Cubs/Reds fans. "Root, root-root for the CUBBIES," is plainly heard and you feel good as a fan, like maybe some of this worry and joy and fanaticism in some way contributes to your team's success. Meanwhile, Milwaukee is tied with San Diego in the 5th inning. It's white knuckle time.

Jacomo Jones doubled to deep left, plating Ramirez and DeRosa in the 8th. The Cubs now lead by six runs in the 9th and the Padres just took the lead 4-3 in the 6th inning. At this point, I walked outside in the humid Friday night air and headed to the store for a sixpack of Old Style. I took it to my roof with my radio and listened to the rest of it under the pale of night and the dim flickering of television screens across the neighborhood. Immediately after Trevor Hoffman's three strikeout 9th inning save, hollers erupted throughout Wrigleyville. Cubs hats hovered on distant balconies smoking cigarettes and toasting beers, cars honked and people swayed. A bottle rocket flared out somewhere near Southport. It was only 10pm on a Friday night in Wrigleyville. The earth was moving and things were happening. The people were out and the Cubs were going to represent the NL Central in October.

I unpluged my radio, collected my empties and sauntered down the stairs in complete gratification. I turned off my phone, cranked the A/C, curled myself into bed and slept like a baby for the first time in weeks. I'm home.