Thursday, January 25, 2007

Top 5 NBA players having HUGE breakout seasons VERY quietly

These are the guys I think are getting glanced over as hugely important cogs in their respective machines. These are the players who we held little or no expectations for being impact players this season. For this criteria, I've excluded guys like Kevin Martin and David Lee (sorry Preacher) because they started showing definite signs towards the end of last year. Many times, an emergence is caused by coaching and/or personnel changes which is not unimportant to consider. With this in mind, I've ranked the following players in order of who I can see maintaining and building on their currently unexpected success...

5.) Jason Kapono (Miami Heat) - As far as Kapono goes, I'm putting him on this list based on what he's done in the past month. The Heat have been ravaged by injury and have been forced to start and play him about 32 minutes a night. I saw the very beginning of this surge in person when the Heat played the Bulls on December 27th. I was amazed at his ability to move in transition, create space for himself and constantly hit open jumpers. For me, Kapono has always been one of those UCLA standouts (much like Ed O'Bannon and Dan Gadzuric before him) that seemed destined to ride the pine in the NBA. I've always thought UCLA fields competitive teams without having next level superstar talent (Baron Davis being the notable can't miss exception). Well, Kapono has made the most of his recent opportunity and might have me turned around on my whole theory. In the past month, he’s averaging 2.3 treys, 14.4 ppg, 3.4 rpg while shooting .553 from the field and .833 from the line. Not half bad.

4.) Leandro Barbosa (Phoenix Suns) - We've all been aware of the OTHER point guard in Phoenix for a couple of years. You know, the guy from Brazil with the quicks? Well, he's finally cemented himself as the most recent breakout star for the Suns. He's the new Raja Bell, hitting 2 treys a game. He's the new Boris Diaw, the utility man filling the lanes. I'm fully aware that Little Stevie Nash is a huge reason why Barbosa is blossoming into a fully realized PG, but I also think we’ve also got to give him credit for his improved stroke from downtown. This year he's having the best year of his career averaging 16.4 ppg, 4.2 apg 1.1 spg. I think it's going to be real interesting to see what he could command on the open market or if he realizes that being Nash's backup/backcourt mate is a pretty cushy job. Either way, I think he's made his splash as a viable NBA commodity.

3.) Monta Ellis (Golden State Warriors) - I remember this guy primarily as the high school kid who arrived in the Bay Area around the same time I did in the summer of 2005. The Warriors took a flyer on him late in the draft even though early estimates projected him as a late first round pick. Mike Montgomery was then hesitant to give him any meaningful minutes early on. I remember him looking undersized and unsure of himself in his sparse playing time. However when Baron Davis went down in February, Ellis logged more time on the court and played decently at best.

While I'm not a huge Don Nelson guy, I do applaud him for getting the most out of his players. He came in during the off season and surmised the talent on his roster accurately (as manifested in last weeks robbery of a trade with the Pacers). Matt Barnes and Andris Biedrens have both emerged from the bench to become solid role players, which is to Nellie's credit, but his finest job was handing the keys to Ellis when BD is off the floor. You can see the confidence growing with each passing game as he carves through the lane either scoring, distributing the basketball or getting to the charity stripe. He's averaging 17.7 ppg, 4.2 apg and 1.3 spg all the while shooting .471 from the field. I believe that if he can cut down on turnovers and acquire consistent outside range, he's a potential All-Star down the road.

2.) Brandon Roy (Portland Trailblazers) - Since the Pacific Northwest is about as far away from my basketball consciousness as possible without leaving the country, it goes without saying that I didn't know much about this Washington star. I've always gotten him mixed up with Randy Foye for some reason. So naturally, I gave up when then they both got drafted right next to each other in June. (On a sidenote, the same thing happened with me for Jason Richardson and Richard Jefferson. It took me two years to get them straight.) Anyways, Roy was injured for over a month to begin the season while a young Trailblazers team struggled for its identity. Since his return, he's been the steadiest and most promising part of that team. Despite starting only two of his first 22 games, he’s averaging 14.7 ppg, 4.4 rpg, 3.0 apg and 1.3 spg. I’m guessing it's going to be a lot easier to remember him after this rookie campaign.

1.) Deron Williams (Utah Jazz) - I'll admit, I've liked this guy since that 2004-05 Illini basketball season. Just a competitive SOB who has great floor vision, toughness and a knack for hitting big shots. I think I'm not alone here which is why his breakout sophomore season is probably the least quiet thing on this list. But let's be completely fair, how can you not buzz about 16.7 ppg, 9.1 apg and 1.2 spg? Since he's in Utah, people love drawing the Stockton comparisons and I don’t think that's entirely out of the question. Both play a stellar, physical brand of defense in the back court. Both are great shooters with great range. Both have/had a chip on their shoulder. I honestly believe that if Williams stays healthy and Utah keeps that Boozer, AK47 and Okur nucleus... they might be hoisting #8 in the rafters in 20 years.

2 comments:

Tom K said...

I agree with you on Barbosa and Ellis, but both are on my team and and my team seems to fucking blow these days, even with LeBron. Basketball isn't my strong suit fantasy wise but this post is giving me some hope. I think if I need to deal somebody. You know what we need is the Head -to-head rankings (same as baseball) for basketball.

Tom K said...

BTW, I like the inline pics in your post. YOU ARE GOOD