The Film-Box

We have moved onto a new movie blog called:

The Film-box! Go or No Go!

Come check us out.

-Dirty, Benny and AK

You better replace the pin, Chi Chi. The natives look restless.

BOWLER: 5 points (65 possible points)
BENNY: 5 points (30 possible points)
DIRTY: 5 points (60 possible points)

It’s a dead heat after one round. The story of the Wildcard weekend was the Indianapolis Colts who lost in overtime to an LDT-less (basically) San Diego Chargers squad. While I agree that the NFL needs to overhaul their overtime protocol, I’m still wondering how it ever got to free football in the first place. Did Sproles and Rivers play out of their mind? Did Peyton and Dungy show their true colors and overachieve in 2006? I’ve heard a lot of buzz about how San Diego is now the real deal and Roethlisberger is shaky after that concussion. However, I see things differently. I believe there is a reason they were 4-8 at one point this season. More to the point, I think Mike Tomlin’s defense baffles the Chargers, at home, below freezing in the snow. I see no sleeper potential here, it’s the end of the line.

Before we move on, I just want to console the Atlanta and Miami fanbases. What a wild, exhilarating ride. It reminds me of the 2001 Bears. You’ve just been given a whiff of success after five years of futility. This is what you’ve asked for, a glimmer of hope only to end with a one-and-done. If we break this down, these unexpected surges into the playoffs are built very precariously. The Dolphins employed a wildcat offense that was somewhat gimmicky. The Ravens exploited this scheme by stacking the box with five linebackers to plug up all the gaps. The Falcons got tremendous efforts from a rookie quarterback and a long time understudy, first time start at running back. Much like the adaptation to the wildcat, I see the league adjusting to Atlanta and a resultant regression to the mean.

Saturday: Baltimore at Tennessee

This is all about who protects the ball. Joe Flacco and Kerry Collins aren’t a great matchup, but the real show will be on the defensive side. Baltimore 17, Tennessee 13.

Saturday: Arizona at Carolina

With Boldin out, the Panthers double-team Fitzgerald and overwhelm them on the ground. This will be over before the 4th quarter. Carolina 38, Arizona 14.

Sunday: Philadelphia at New York Giants

Easily the best game of the weekend. I’ve already picked the Giants to move on, but I’m not as confident in them as I was earlier in the season. Giants 31, Eagles 27.

Sunday: San Diego at Pittsburgh

As I wrote above, this will be an exercise in smash mouth football. It will be heavy on controlling the clock and low on points. Pittsburgh 24, San Diego 10.

Ok, I gotta run. Liverpool/Stoke City is underway. Come on you Reds (or Teals?)!

NFL Playoffs Picks

I'm just posting our picks now, I will update after each round with updated standings and some impressions of the games gone by. Points will go as follows: Wild Card Winner +2.5 points, Divisional Winner +5 points, Conference Championship Winner +10 points, Superbowl Winner +20 points. Mahalo.

BOWLER'S PICKS
NFC:
Wild Card Round
Cardinals over Falcons
Vikings over Eagles
Divisional Round
Giants over Cardinals
Panthers over Vikings
Conference Championship
Panthers over Giants

AFC:
Wild Card Round
Colts over Chargers
Ravens over Dolphins
Divisional Round
Ravens over Titans
Steelers over Colts
Conference Championship
Steelers over Ravens

SUPERBOWL XLIII:
Panthers over Steelers


BENNY'S PICKS
NFC:
Wild Card Round
Falcons over Cardinals
Eagles over Vikings
Divisional Round
Eagles over Giants
Panthers over Falcons
Conference Championship
Panthers over Eagles

AFC:
Wild Card Round
Colts over Chargers
Ravens over Dolphins
Divisional Round
Titans over Ravens
Colts over Steelers
Conference Championship
Colts over Titans

SUPERBOWL XLIII:
Colts over Panthers


DIRTY'S PICKS
NFC:
Wild Card Round
Cardinals over Falcons
Eagles over Vikings
Divisional Round
Giants over Eagles
Panthers over Cardinals
Conference Championship
Giants over Panthers

AFC:
Wild Card Round
Colts over Chargers
Dolphins over Ravens
Divisional Round
Colts over Titans
Steelers over Dolphins
Conference Championship
Steelers over Colts

SUPERBOWL XLIII:
Steelers over Giants

The Best of Bowler & Benny: The 2008 Edition

It seems like every December we all subconsciously (or perhaps semiconsciously) slip into a deeper state of self-inquiry. We examine the changes we’ve undergone in the past twelve months, attempt to extract some significance from those observations and then hopefully act on these newly actualized precepts... but in the end, we're more likely to simply eat too much, drink the drinks of the season and wait for the standard “best of the year” lists to roll in.

This has been a solid sophomore campaign for the Bowler & Benny. We’ve added Kurt Dirty, the resident tea sipper extraordinaire. His insights on The Beautiful Game have added a certain sophistication to this space and his contributions are immeasurable. As far as sport, we have been afforded probably the most memorable year in recent memory. The Giants over the Patriots in an epic Superbowl. The Final Four populated by four #1 seeds. Manchester United and Chelsea in an All-EPL Champions League Final. The Lakers/Celtics rivalry renewed. Tiger Woods at his career defining best. The Tampa Bay Rays improbable run. And of course, the 2008 Detroit Lions in all their glory.

Now, I understand that we took a 4-month break between July and November so that takes the luster off the breadth of our 2008 coverage. But really, we got busy. Ben is double dipping with school and work, Dirty is engaged and I’m… well, I’m just lazy. The Cubs and Brewers broke our hearts and Brett Favre made Ben’s ability to do anything beyond chew food and swallow a difficult task (read: limited bathing). Despite this seeming let down, we managed to churn out 46 posts. We’ll take it.

To any new readers, please become a Bowler & Benny supporter by clicking on the link to the right. It would be greatly appreciated.

10.Sean Singletary's Legacy
Monday, March 10, 2008

It’s been a tough season for Mr. Singletary. He was drafted by the Sacramento Kings as the 42nd overall pick and played some impressive summer league minutes (an oxymoron to be sure). Just as he was getting settled, he was traded to Houston on the eve of the season only to be traded a day later to Phoenix. Due to some early injuries to Leandro Barbosa, Singletary got some playing time for about a week in November with a couple serviceable outings. In the past two weeks, he was again traded to Charlotte (on his fourth team before logging his 126th minute of NBA floor time). It’s too early to say anything, after all, there is a precedent of standout Virginia guards taking some time to blossom at the professional ranks. In the end, I know #44 has got the chops to make it if he lands in the right system with the right coach.

9.The Descent of Man
Thursday, January 17, 2008

I love January because even if your boyhood football team hasn’t played a meaningful game in weeks, as a fan you are provided 11 highly pressurized, astutely played, reputation defining playoff games. A token from the football gods for your dutiful commitment to America’s game. However, if you are fortunate enough to have your team still playing, nothing is more important. MLB playoff series are twisting sagas, the NBA playoffs are not exciting until deciding games, but each 60 minute parcel of NFL drama is unmatched. Although the Packers came up short in overtime and Ben’s world has been turned upside down (NFL-wise), his honest hope and raw anxiety still are representations of what January is all about.

8.Tiggy Woo: Movement 2: Adagio
Wednesday, January 30, 2008

Although written 4 ½ months before his historic U.S. Open run, Dirty nails all the reasons why Tiger Woods is entering a truly remarkable period of his career. Some have said that he did “irrevocable damage” to his knee with that gutsy performance at Torrey Pines, however that simply remains to be seen. Although the U.S. triumphed in the Ryder Cup this September without his services causing a slew of idiotic headlines, his legend continues to loom large. His absence from the spotlight is still front page news and our only recourse as golf fans starved for greatness is to crack a beer and let’er rip. In the end, another great post by Mr. Bauer.

7.Dissecting the Evil Empire
Wednesday, January 16, 2008

Due to the misadventures of Charlie Weis and Hank Steinbrenner the Evil Empire has temporarily relocated to Boston. Yep, I’m pretty sure on that one.

6.Every time I meet a new person, I figure out how I'm gonna fight 'em - you have a gimpy left knee, right?
Wednesday, January 23, 2008
and
Retrospecticus
Monday, June 2, 2008

I haven't lived in Chicago or frequented the Ginger's Ale House with Kurt Dirty in almost a year. My knowledge and participation in the Reds have suffered drastically, but I still manage to watch every odd Saturday morning on FSC or midweek on ESPN for Champions League action. Here are two bookends, a midseason report and a post season summary of the Liverpool F.C. season by Dirty McLiverbird. I can garuntee that there are fewer knowledgable writers on the subject of their side than Mr. Bauer, a treat even for the non-footy fans.

5.Your 2008 Bracket and the 2007 NCAA Tournament
Tuesday, February 26, 2008
and
Not so Crazy (Elite) Eight
Monday, March 17, 2008

I love when Ben goes Moneyball on us. Enjoy these illuminating posts written on the eve and at the midpoint of March Madness. They will tickle your mind grapes.

4.Cubs v. Brewers - A Running Diary
Wednesday, April 30, 2008

The Running Diary is probably my favorite Bill Simmons style of writing. The form is short, largely observational and stylistically open-ended. I find that exploring tangents are the most rewarding aspects of pieces like these. If the Bears somehow sneak by the Vikings and take the NFC North, you can bet that I will commandeer the bourbon and fire up the laptop for another edition. Like splitting aces.

3.A Ridiculous Assumption
Thursday, July 10, 2008

Is it REALLY that ridiculous?

2.The Equivalents
Saturday, February 23, 2008

This is probably my best idea all year, although that’s like picking my favorite Kyle Orton scramble this year. I believe this post will hold up, but my favorite remains the Ice Cube/George Forman comparison.

1.Everything I know about football is wrong
Sunday, February 3, 2008

When you don’t have a horse in the running, sometimes those are the most memorable races. Most recently, the 2004 Red Sox, the 2006 Cleveland Cavaliers over the Detroit Pistons and now, the 2008 New York Giants. I remember driving home the morning after, stunned. The hour-long trip from Richmond to Charlottesville after 3 hours of sleep on my buddy David’s couch, glued to Sportstalk radio, unable to process what it all meant. I got home, fired up the computer and read Ben’s post. An astonishing mile marker in the NFL landscape...
Beautifully.
Fucking.
Illustrated.

When Baseball Predictions Go Horribly, Horribly Wrong

NL EAST
Benny: NY Mets
Bowler: NY Mets
Dirty: Phillies

I mean honestly, who could have predicted another Mets collapse? I’ll admit, the Marlins looked like a darkhorse for a while and Atlanta was hovering around .500 at the All-Star break, but it was always going to be a Phillies/Mets slugfest. There were two things that Benny and I didn’t account for: The Brad Lidge resurgence and the Luis Ayala/Aaron Heilman/Pedro Feliciano backup plan for Billy Wagner. Dirty, just a fantastic job backing into that one.

NL CENTRAL
Benny: Brewers
Bowler: Cubbies
Dirty: Cubbies

I say this is essentially a draw since these shameless homer picks all made the playoffs (for what amounted to a cigarette, a blindfold and a swift deliberation by the jury). Kudos goes to Ben for peeing his pants in his living room the instant the Brewers clinched. Who needs a tub after all? However, since the pain is still fresh, I’m simply moving on.

NL WEST
Benny: Padres
Bowler: Diamondbacks
Dirty: Padres

I’m going to give myself the slight tip of the cap on this one since my pick finished two games back of the Dodgers while the Padres finished with the 3rd worst record in the Majors. I understand their pitching looked promising with Peavy and Young, but when you only have three players with over 100 hits it’s a little difficult to contend even in the worst division in baseball.

NL WILDCARD
Benny: Diamondbacks
Bowler: Dodgers
Dirty: Brewers

Dirty nails the Trifecta with this one. Phils, Cubs, Brewers. Very impressive. I feel by taking the Dodgers that at least earns me a “Place” and Benny rounds out the field with a “Show”. The National League, THEY ARE WHO WE THOUGHT THEY WERE!!! ANY WE LET ‘EM OFF THE HOOK!!!

AL EAST
Benny: NYY
Bowler: NYY
Dirty: BOS

I was under the impression that this was a coin flip scenario. However, this year we got a wiseguy with one of those novelty coins that lands vertically on its ridges. But hey, Dickie V got some PT early repping his band of Diaper Dandies while 800 commentators used the phrase “Most people don’t know Joe Maddon from John Madden” all the while thinking they were original and hilarious. Goooooooood times.

AL CENTRAL
Benny: Cleveland Indians
Bowler: Detroit Tigers
Dirty: Detroit Tigers

I’m still trying to figure out what happened here. I mean, it was the White Sox and Twins from late April on. On paper the Tigers line-up looked beastly (and when you crunch the numbers, they were) but it was the pitching that lead them astray. I have a feeling this had something to do with such a disappointing season: Kenny Rogers – (173.2 IP, 4.25 K/9, 5.70 ERA) and Nate Robertson – (168.2 IP, 5.76 K/9, 6.35 ERA). When those guys are pitching 24% of your innings for an entire season, 74 wins is actually rather remarkable. Benny gets the nod because the Indians rallied back to a .500 record, but in the end, we’re all losers.

AL WEST
Benny: LAA
Bowler: LAA
Dirty: Seattle Mariners

Don’t worry about it Dirty, people miss layups all the time.

AL WILD CARD
Benny: Detroit Tigers
Bowler: Boston Red Sox
Dirty: LAA

I want to take this opportunity to praise the Tampa Bay Rays some more. I’m physically peaking at the idea of Hank Steinbrenner glowering like Pa-Pa and dutifully running the Yankees into the ground. I’m cautiously optimistic that the BoSox are growing older, losing stars and returning back to earth. While I know it’s only one year, the potential for an earth altering shift in the Yank-Saux universe is exactly what we all need. Mark it, dude.

NL ROY
Benny: Kosuke Fukudome
Bowler: Kosuke Fukudome
Dirty: Kosuke Fukudome
Actual winner: Geovany “mah-fuckin” Soto

I wrote some glowing words about Fukudome early in the 2008 season, but I believe the combination of superior MLB pitching, season length and overall fatigue conspired against the former Chunichi Dragon. His splits read like an M. Night Shyamalan movie - a promising beginning which bleeds into a crappy second act and culminates with a predictably pathetic final ten minutes (1-10, 4K in the NLDS). I have no idea what 2009 has in store for Fukudome-san. Oh, but Geo was a no brainer. He reminds me of Jojo Jacobitz from my little league days. I’m assuming only one or two people get that reference, but trust me, it’s a good thing.

NL MVP
Benny: Ryan Braun
Bowler: David Wright
Dirty: Alfonso Soriano
Actual winner: Albert Pujols

Don’t get me wrong, I understand that Ryan Howard willed his team into the playoffs in September with the lumber. I understand he made their run possible due in large part to the threat of his game-changing swing. But people, 199 strikeouts for an MVP? Besides, Pujols deserves a second MVP since Barry Bonds probably heisted one during “The Juice Years”. Oh, and there’s this:

RYAN HOWARD (based on 691 plate appearances)
29% strikeout
12% walk
7% homerun
OPS .882

ALBERT PUJOLS (based on 628 plate appearances)
9% strikeout
17% walk
6% homerun
OPS 1.114

NL CY YOUNG
Benny: Johan Santana
Bowler: Johan Santana
Dirty: Ben Sheets
Actual winner: Tim Lincecum

Hey Dirty, did you REALLY think Ben Sheets was making the leap? Kerry Wood and Ben Sheets get together in the off season, shoot regional Icy Hot commercials and compare 11-12 records.

NL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Benny: Eric Gagne
Bowler: Chris Carpenter
Dirty: Andruw Jones
Actual winner: Brad Lidge

The pitcher pauses, kicks and delivers. SA-WING and A MISS. It looked like the batter was looking for a first pitch fastball but got nothing but the circle change. (Gagne)

The batter digs in, awaiting the second pitch. The pitcher deals a 12-6 curveball right down the pipe, CALLED STRIKE TWO. The bat never left his shoulder! He played the guessing game and got burnt. (Jones)

The batter has dug himself an 0-2 count. The pitcher nods, collects himself and – WHAT?!? The batter is now sitting crosslegged in the batters box! It’s appears as if he’s dousing himself in some sort of clear liquid from a squeeze bottle and is now fishing some tiny metallic instrument out of his back pocket! HE’S JUST- YES! HE’S NOW BURST INTO FLAMES!!! OH THE HUMANITY! (Carpenter)

AL ROY
Benny: Kurt Suzuki
Bowler: Evan Longoria
Dirty: Ian Kennedy
Actual winner: Evan Longoria

“It’s not so much me as it’s Longoria, HE’s good”

AL MVP
Benny: Alex Rodriguez
Bowler: Vladimir Guerrero
Dirty: Magglio Ordonez
Actual winner: Dustin Pedroia

I don’t have really anything to say about Pedroia. I’m kinda running out of steam here. It’s late and the Bulls are down 34-13 to the Blazers and we look like a lottery team. Greg Oden is making our “big men” look like J.V. underachievers. Steve Blake must have gotten pissed at me posting his missed bunny and now he’s lighting us up. Time for some sleep, thanks for coming out…

AL CY YOUNG
Benny: Justin Verlander
Bowler: John Lackey
Dirty: Justin Verlander

AL COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR
Benny: Jose Giullen
Bowler: Francisco Liriano
Dirty: Cliff Floyd

LADIES AND GENTLEMEN, YOUR AL CY YOUNG AND COMEBACK PLAYER OF THE YEAR…. MR. CLIFF LEE

lest you thought i didn't have any emotions regarding brett favre...

this is an out-of-context e-mail response to my dad and his wisconsinite friend about the recent developments. it's the best i can do presently. this whole deal makes me sick to my stomach. *turns to hit 'play' button to resume listening to "Superstar" as sung by Bette Midler while forlornly sitting in a bubble bath with a bloody mary and surrounded by lit candles scented like apples and clean linen*

"where there's smoke, there's fire but we can never know what transpired behind closed doors. suffice it to say that both brett and management have erred in judgment privately and publicly and as a result the unthinkable has happened and has been allowed to continue to happen.

it's no time for thompson to engage in a battle of ego here. what is best for the packers is brett as quarterback. there are 25 other teams in the league who would kill for a quarterback of his caliber. it defies all logic to choose aaron, who has thrown 59 passes IN HIS CAREER, over brett, who at 38 played one of his best ever seasons. aaron's had 4 months of offseason preparation and game planning. who the fuck cares? with brett favre the packers are the favorite to represent the nfc in the super bowl. without him, they're a question mark. brett has pride, sure. he's been unclear and secretive and combative and all-in-all noncommital as to what he's wanted to do until now. i'll forgive him all that. not because of what he's done on the field, but because he's human. he's a football player and he's the best at what he does. he's not paid to be a fucking diplomat.

thompson, as a general manager, cannot and should not win the battle of pride here. that's not his job. his job is to help the packers win the super bowl. the right thing for the packers is to bring brett back with open arms, forgive him his recent uncertainty and statements, and move on. if aaron is upset, trade HIM. they'll get better value dollar for dollar than they would for brett. and if brett rides off into the sunset (again) next year, there's always brian brohm."

The case for the Brewers...

Brewers post-All Star break record: 1-0

Cubs post-All Star break record: 0-1

Convincing argument, right?

The Bowler and I can agree that we haven’t mutually anticipated the dog days this much since we’ve known each other. Though the 2007 campaign remained in doubt until the last series of the season, as early as Independence Day, it was all too apparent that we were supporting teams headed in opposite directions.

This year has far different feel to it. After an uncharacteristically slow start, the Crew are 12 games over .500 since losing 6 straight games to begin May. Over the same period of time, the Cubbies have played even better at 14 games over .500. With 76 games remaining, both teams have demonstrated consistency and begin the home stretch playing well enough to be considered pennant frontrunners in the National League. The recent trades for Sabathia and Harden only served to raise the intensity and drama of the chase. The watches and car keys are in the pot and both teams believe they possess the better hand.


Of course, the Cubs currently have the advantage, not only in their 4-game lead in the standings, but in the way that they have hit and pitched thus far. The Brewers’ sometimes baffling inability to get on base and their misadventures in the field and bullpen continue to try my patience and are a little too reminiscent of last year’s historical collapse. Given the present state of affairs, it is unlikely that the Brewers will be able to catch the Cubs before the end of the regular season.

As of today, playoff projections indicate that the probability is that the Cubs will win the NL Central outright and that the Brewers have the best likelihood of any team in the National League to secure the Wild Card. Much will be settled in the 10 remaining games that the Brewers and Cubs are scheduled to play, 7 of which will take place in Milwaukee (I will try to ignore the fact that traditionally Cubs fans have made Miller seem like Wrigley), where Milwaukee has the 2nd-best homefield advantage (behind the Cubs). The Brewers and the Cubs will also play in the last series of the regular season which, if the issue is fought out on this line all summer, will result in a release of the contents of my bladder whether or not the Brewers secure a playoff berth.

Presuming the numbers are correct (which presumption may turn out to be foolhardy given the snowballing avalanche that is the New York fucking Mets) and also the import of the remaining games between the two teams, the pennant will be decided on the field between the two teams in the NLCS. This offers some encouragement to the Brewers, who in 6 games at Wrigley Field this year (their only so far against the Cubs), have taken 4. However, those will be ancient history by the time October rolls around. These are the hosses and guns that will decide the fray:

Starting rotations:

Sheets/Sabathia/Parra/Suppan/McClung-Bush

Zambrano/Harden/Lilly/Dempster/Marquis


On the track:

Braun/Cameron/Hart

Soriano/Edmonds/Fukudome


Around the horn:

Hall-Branyan/Hardy/Weeks/Fielder/Kendall

Ramirez/Theriot/DeRosa/Lee/Soto


Out of the ‘pen:

Torres/Riske/Shouse

Wood/Marmol/Howry


On the pine:

Kapler/Counsell/Dillon

Cedeno/Fontenot/Johnson


Looking at that, we’re in for a potentially epic duel down the stretch.

The Brewers have the advantage because they are more of a known quantity and, in my view, will better sustain their performance.

For the Cubs, uncertainty abounds. Can Alfonso Soriano return from the DL at the end of July and resume playing at a high level? Can Ryan Dempster, Jim Edmonds, Ryan Theriot, and Mark DeRosa continue to outperform projections? Can Jim Edmonds and Rich Harden stay healthy? The second half for the Cubs points to at least a slight regression to the mean.

Ryan Dempster is 31 and has already pitched 30 innings more than he did in his best season in 2005. DeRosa, 33, is having his best season as a professional baseball player. Jim Edmonds has been steadily declining since the 2006 season and he hasn’t had more than 400 at-bats since 2005. In Ryan Theriot’s only full season, he struck out more than he walked and his numbers of .266/.326/.346 make my penis erect. Tony Womack is his most similar comparison by age. And everyone knows Rich Harden hasn’t pitched more than 100 innings since 2005. He’s at 82 innings right now.

For the Brewers, Prince Fielder, J.J. Hardy, Ryan Braun, Mike Cameron, Corey Hart, and Russell Branyan all OPS+ at 115 or higher. They are far younger than the Cubs, particularly at amongst the starters, and less likely to fade down the stretch. And, if they survive until mid-October, the Cubs would do well to remember that Yovani Gallardo will be ready to return. Sheets, Sabathia, Gallardo, and Parra would arguably be the scariest 4-man rotation in the Major Leagues.

The final nail in the Cubbies’ collective coffin: Come October, the Cubs will have gone 100 years without winning a World Series. If they win the pennant, that would potentially ruin a perfectly good cocaine party hosted by Gary Sinise and Journey. We’ll be at the Drake Hotel on East Walton Place. I’ll be the one wearing the urine-stained boxers and the Paul Molitor jersey.