Where I prove I know very little about the NBA

At the beginning of the NBA season we split up the teams and made our predictions. I made mine, Ben made his. We went out on some limbs, but for the most part we picked the wrong branches. Here’s a rundown of my picks now that this whole fiasco known as the regular season is in the books:

Miami Heat
I said (42-40)
They went (15-67)

To my credit, nobody saw this coming. Here are their win totals from the past four seasons: 59, 52, 44, 15. So what went wrong? Well, Ricky Davis and Udonis Haslem were their third and fourth best players and Haslem barely played half the season. Those are 6th men on contenders. The fact that Shaq probably gave up ten games in didn’t help matters, but really, no team could really respond to that brutal start without having the horses. Miami simply didn’t have them. Verdict: Miserable prediction, but I wasn’t alone.


Portland Trailblazers
I said (32-50)
They went (41-41)

When they started the season 22-13, I knew I was in trouble here. They faded a little down the stretch but really they over achieved in the first two months with some tremendous play from Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge (Tyrus who?). Truth be told, I predicted that once Oden returned they would be a fixture in the Western Conference playoffs for years to come. So as far as that prediction goes, I’m still looking solid. Verdict: I underestimated you young padawan learner.


Atlanta Hawks
I said (35-47)
They went (37-45)

Hey SHOOT-TA! My first money prediction. I didn’t see them making the playoffs as an 8th seed, but honestly, I didn’t know the East was going to be THIS miserable. Verdict: I am all that is man!


Houston Rockets
I said (51-31)
They went (55-27)

I was a big fan of this squad at the beginning of the season. I even drafted Yao on one of my fantasy teams and I scooped up Rafer Alston (the most underrated player in the NBA) on another team. Their winning streak was surprising, but nothing was fluky about it. While I understand that they are playing a solid Utah team in the first round without home court advantage, I think this series goes seven games. Luis Scola bitches. Verdict: I feel like I’m getting into a groove here.


Sacramento Kings
I said (35-47)
They went (38-44)

There is absolutely no upside to this team. Bad contracts, old players, yawning fans. They traded Mike Bibby and nobody noticed. Kevin Martin is NOT, I repeat, NOT an Alpha dog. Ron Artest had a nice year, but who cares? The Western Conference smokes mediocre teams. My prediction was very good, but with a team this nondescript it’s like shooting fish in a barrel. Verdict: I’ve been 3-for-3 lately, I foresee badness.


L.A. Clippers
I said (32-50)
They went (23-59)

I’ll be honest with you. I didn’t watch a Clippers game all season. Here are their win totals for the previous 5 seasons: 28, 37, 47, 40, 23. Talk about your perfect bell curves. Verdict: I guess we’re back to the Clippers of old. I’ll make a note of it.


Orlando Magic
I said (44-38)
They went (52-30)

I finished my prediction with this sentiment: “Interesting team, maybe a year away.” Well, I think I got my answer a year early. Every pundit who condemned picking a high schooler (Howard) over a collegiate national champion (Okafor) should hang up their mics or drop their pens. While it’s a good precept, it’s also important to actually LOOK at the players involved. Howard is going to play in MULTIPLE Finals once all is said and done. Also, shame on every team picking in the teens of the 2004 draft. How do you let Jameer Nelson fall to the 20th pick? We knew it was a steal when it happened, but now we know it was a huge steal. If only they didn’t give a max contract to Rashard Lewis, I would absolutely love everything about this team. That being said, they aren’t beating Detroit in the second round. Maybe a year away. Verdict: I’m actually glad I was proven wrong on this one. Dwight Howard is going to be wearing a gold medal by the end of this summer, eventually he’ll be able to hang that off an Finals MVP trophy. Yeah, I said it.


Detroit Pistons
I said (48-34)
They went (59-23)

I hate this team. Verdict: I REALLY hate this team.


L.A. Lakers
I said (41-41)
They went (57-25)

The wheels really came off on this pick, but I have some reasons why:

1) Kobe Bryant was acting like a petulant kid all preseason. He was surly and venting to Dan Patrick on the radio and looking like an asshole. Then the season starts, Phil Jackson starts darting him with relaxation tonic and he starts playing inspired team ball. He’ll probably win the MVP (even though Chris Paul deserves it) and his ability to play through pain displays a sense of urgency about this era of his career.

2) Andrew Bynum made the jump from serviceable to downright studly. I didn’t know this was going to happen.

3) They got two and a half months of Pau Gasol for Kwame Brown and a bag of Fritos. This trade was criminal even if Memphis was just making the trade as a salary dump. Shave some money for cap space with your third or fourth best player, but not your franchise player. Just inexcusable. Verdict: My bad. This was probably my worst prediction in the West.


Charlotte Bobcats
I said (40-42)
They went (32-50)

For the first time in three years, the Bobcats took a big step backwards. I really wanted this team to succeed but it just really wasn’t meant to be. I like the Wallace, Richardson, Felton trio at guard but they are built too much like the Bulls. Bad shooting nights will ultimately doom them. Verdict: They are getting back Adam Morrison next year and I’m going to predict a 28-win season. These things are related.


Dallas Mavericks
I said (59-23)
They went (51-31)

I believe that this prediction is sound, but the Mavs were victims of so many other teams stepping it up this year in the West (Lakers, Hornets, Houston). I think Dallas has a reasonable shot at knocking off the upstart Hornets in the first round, but it all comes down to their two big names. Kidd can lead but can’t shoot, Dirk can shoot but can’t lead. If they can somehow balance their presences and get consistent production from Josh Howard and Jason Terry then they might move on. How far is up to them. Verdict: My early success has fizzled. I’m just happy if I’m within 10 games now.


Golden State Warriors
I said (46-36)
They went (48-34)

I’ll admit it. I follow Oakland teams. In the Western Conference, I pull for the Warriors. In the American League, I like the Athletics. When it comes to my favorite NFL Films clip, it’s not even a question. I want to watch John Madden standing around dumbfounded after witnessing the holy roller while Bill King emotes: “Madden is on the field, he wants to know if it’s real. They said ‘Yes, get your big butt outta here. He does!’” Verdict: I know my Warriors. The playoffs are worse for not having them.


Minnesota Timberwolves
I said (29-53)
They went (22-60)

I didn’t watch a Timberwolves game all season either. I was generous with my prediction because I though there was some chance they were scrappy enough to win some games they weren’t supposed to. Evidently, my optimism was misguided. Verdict: Not perfect, but in the ballpark.

Toronto Raptors
I said (44-38)
They went (41-41)

I think the Raptors are going to finish within five games of .500 for the next five seasons and never make it out of the second round. I said earlier that I thought Orlando (Howard) and Toronto (Bosh) would clash famously in the 2011 Eastern Conference Finals. No more. There is a word that comes to mind when I think of Toronto and it’s vanilla. As a flavor vanilla isn’t bad, but let’s face it, it’s not all that great either. Verdict: A layup.

Chicago Bulls
I said (50-32)
They went (33-49)

WHAT THE FUCK. I’m officially embarrassed. I enjoyed the early Chandler/Curry years more than this one. I don’t feel bad about my prediction because lots of people had them making some noise in the playoffs, but how exactly did things fall apart so majestically from the start? I think it’s finally obvious that we should have made a big trade at some point over the last two seasons to address inside scoring. Ben Wallace was a debacle. Scott Skiles (who I still like) was dealt a hand of starters with contract issues and rookies with bad attitudes. I’ll be honest, I watched exactly three Bulls games after Christmas and twice they involved Lebron James. I’m just befuddled. Everything I liked about this team the past four years is gone or substantially marginalized. Ben Gordon is not worth 10 million dollars a season and we should not pay him that. I like Drew Gooden, but what are we going to do with Larry Hughes in an already crowded backcourt? We have like half a ping pong ball which means we’ll end up missing out on the Rose/Beasley/Love express and we still have to shop for a new coach. What a shit show. Verdict: Kill yourself.